Q2 2026 Security Incident Report
Over the past quarter, Seerist's intelligence team verified more than 39,000 global security events across conflict, unrest, terrorism, and violent organized crime.
This report distills that activity into a focused view of how risk is shifting, including 6,094 verified war events in Lebanon since March and a 180% surge in unrest in Bolivia, plus what to monitor in Q3.
Inside this quarter's report
- Key elections and events to monitor heading into Q3
- The fragile Lebanon-Israel ceasefire and the surge in verified war events
- Bolivia's fuel-driven unrest crisis and a 180% quarterly spike in protests
- Indonesia's student-led demonstrations over rising fuel prices
Executive Summary
Unrest
Middle East & North Africa
Verified unrest events in the MENA region declined by over 28% from Q1 to Q2, following a 24% decline from Q4 to Q1. The decrease was largely driven by reduced unrest in Iran and Israel during the US-Israel-Iran war. In Iran, unrest declined nearly 67% from March to April but rebounded after hostilities ended, rising 133% from April to May and 196% from May to June, though June levels remained 63% below February. Elsewhere, unrest fell 45% in Bahrain and nearly 34% in Iraq, remained stable in Yemen, and increased 99% in Syria amid cost-of-living and governance challenges.
Americas
The Americas region saw a 16.9% quarterly fall in verified unrest events, driven by a sharp decline in the US (-48.3%), where the number of unrest events fell in the absence of ‘No Kings’ protests against the administration of US President Donald Trump. We recorded notable increases in Argentina (112.4%), Bolivia (179.1%), and Mexico (25.2%). In Argentina, state workers went on strike and held protests across several provinces, demanding a new collective contract. In Bolivia, anti-government protests occurred nationwide, with major roads and highways blockaded, leading to a 90-day state of emergency. In Mexico, unionized education workers held daily protests, blockades, and sit-ins, capitalizing on the spotlight from the start of the FIFA World Cup.
Africa
Unrest events in Africa fall by 9% from Q1 to Q2. In Senegal, verified unrest events dropped by 52% as protests related to the education sector and sit-ins outside universities declined. Nigeria reported a 30% decrease due to a reduced number of protests targeting the government sector, but protest activity is likely to be sustained by continuing insecurity and political tension. Meanwhile, in South Africa, unrest events increased by 9%, driven by anti-immigrant sentiment and ongoing service delivery protests against the government. Anti-immigration sentiment and broader socioeconomic grievances will likely drive further localized yet disruptive incidents.
Asia and the Pacific
Verified unrest events declined by 6.5% in Q2. India remained the largest contributor despite a 16% decrease. Despite the regional downturn, a spike in unrest was observed in the Philippines, Indonesia, and South Korea. In the Philippines, a second union-led transport strike took place across 11 cities on 15 April to protest higher fuel taxes and oil prices. In Indonesia, nationwide demonstrations over fuel prices escalated into student-led anti-government protests in mid-June. Meanwhile, in South Korea, protests were held on 10 June over ballot shortages during the 3 June local elections. Continued uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is likely to disrupt energy supplies, and fertilizer and food exports to the region, sustaining the risk of unrest driven by rising fuel prices and reduced affordability of basic commodities into Q3.
Europe
Europe saw a 15.8% quarterly fall in unrest events in Q2. Germany accounted for the largest share (25.2%), followed by France (16.3%) and Italy (10.6%). Germany saw a 20% fall compared with Q1, with unrest still driven by sustained strikes across transport, telecom, and retail sectors, alongside recurring pro-Palestine demonstrations in Berlin and Munich. Unrest in France, Italy, Belgium and Spain were also mainly driven by labor unrest. Italy saw a 28% quarterly increase; unrest levels in Belgium and France were largely stable; and Spain saw a 45% drop in recorded unrest events. Albania saw a significant rise in unrest, with protests against a luxury tourism project in a protected landscape escalated to widespread anti-government unrest.
War
Middle East & North Africa
Verified war events in the MENA region increased 14% from Q1 to Q2, on top of a more than 200% increase from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026 during the US-Israel-Iran war. Lebanon recorded the most conflict events, increasing nearly 90%, followed by Israel, up 3%. Meanwhile, war events declined 33% in the Palestinian Territories and 50% in Iran. In Lebanon, conflict peaked at 1,903 events in March, with levels sustained to the 16 April ceasefire, continuing at a reduced rate until the 19 June ceasefire, after which levels dropped significantly. In Iran, war events surged to more than 675 in March before decreasing 55% in April as hostilities dwindled.
Americas
In Q2 2026, war events decreased by 7% in the Americas. More than 90% took place in Colombia, which saw a 15% increase. The Colombian government continued to target leftist guerrillas, carrying out a bombing in Norte de Santander department in May that killed seven National Liberation Army (ELN) combatants. President-elect Abelardo de la Espriella's proposed security strategy, including intensified military operations, will likely result in continued clashes with FARC dissidents and ELN militants in coming months. De la Espriella’s heavy-handed militarization approach is likely to trigger retaliatory attacks from armed groups with increased intent to stage terrorism and sabotage attacks in conflict hotspots and major cities.
Africa
War events in Africa fell 14% in Q2. In South Sudan, verified conflict events declined 75% amid a slowdown in operations by the South Sudan People's Defense Forces (SSPDF) against the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLA-IO) and ethnic Nuer White Army militia. Sudan recorded a 24% decrease in verified war events and fighting will likely ease over the coming months as the rainy season disrupts military operations. However, Mali recorded a 144% rise in verified war events as nationwide clashes between militants, separatists and security forces persisted following coordinated attacks on strategic towns across northern, central and southern Mali on 25 April. Militants have struck strategic towns such as Gao and Kidal, and blockaded the capital, Bamako, leading to escalating war and terrorism risks.
Asia and the Pacific
The APAC region recorded an 11.9% quarterly decline in verified war events, driven primarily by falls in India (72%), Afghanistan (28%), and Pakistan (27%). Myanmar recorded a 7% decline but continued to account for 62% of regional war events. Fighting remained concentrated in Sagaing Region, Magway Region, and Rakhine State, while Chin State emerged as a more active front as regime forces sought to regain control of the Kalay–Tamu section of the India–Myanmar–Thailand (IMT) Highway. Border tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan escalated on 28 June, when Pakistani retaliatory airstrikes on Afghanistan reportedly killed 30 people and injured 158 others in Mandokhail village, Paktia Province. Separately, Taiwan recorded a 17.2% rise in Chinese military aircraft incursions across the median line of the Taiwan Strait.
Europe
Seerist recorded a 5.1% fall in War events in Ukraine, following a 1.9% increase in Q1. War events in Russia rose 21% in Q2, after increasing 6.9% in the previous quarter. Ukraine has achieved greater targeting autonomy through domestically produced cruise missiles, successfully striking high-value facilities deep inside Russia. Russia’s ground offensive in the Donetsk region has yielded incremental gains. Diplomatic efforts remain stalled. Meanwhile, drone incursions and suspected sabotage events intensified across Europe in Q2, with unidentified drones forcing temporary shutdowns of Helsinki and Munich airports. In France, a drone factory near Toulouse that supplies Ukraine was targeted with Molotov cocktails. Authorities are investigating possible Russian involvement, reflecting a broader pattern of low-cost, hard-to-attribute threats against critical infrastructure and defense-industrial targets tied to support for Ukraine.
Terrorism
Middle East & North Africa
Syria in Q2 accounted for the region’s most significant terrorism activity outside ongoing conflicts due to high-impact urban attacks in Damascus. Major incidents included a 19 May car bomb at the Ministry of Defense that killed 24 people. These attacks are increasingly linked to Saraya Ansar al-Sunna (SAS), which targets state symbols and foreign diplomatic engagements to disrupt the political transition. Islamic State (IS) activity continues in northeastern Syria. Despite US-supported strikes and improved state capacity, militant groups retain the intent and capability to conduct sporadic, high-casualty operations against government forces, religious minorities, and foreign delegations.
Americas
There was a slight rise in terrorism events in America from Q1 to Q2 2026. Chile recorded five events related to sporadic incendiary attacks by Mapuche activists against forestry companies. Colombia accounted for 92% of the region's terrorism events, with attacks continuing to be linked to active FARC dissident factions and National Liberation Army (ELN) members operating across the country. Notable incidents include an attack in Cajibío, Cauca department, where FARC dissidents detonated an IED on a bus, killing 19 people and injuring 48 others.
Africa
Terrorism events in Africa dropped by 48% in Q2 compared with Q1 2026, driven by decreases in Mali and Niger. In Mali, militants predominantly focused on capturing territory and degrading military strength rather than on terrorism attacks. Fighting will be periodic and unpredictable in the coming months, with military setbacks undermining the stability of the junta. In Niger, attacks by Islamist militant groups mainly targeted the military, culminating in a JNIM attack targeting the Diori Hamani International Airport in the capital Niamey on 18 June. Militants will continue to target security infrastructure in areas surrounding the capital as their activities have become entrenched in the western region, encircling Niamey. In the Sahel, escalating militancy will sustain extreme regime instability and terrorism risks in the coming months.
Asia and the Pacific
Verified terrorism incidents in APAC decreased by 8.8% from Q1 to Q2 2026. While most countries recorded a decline, Thailand saw a 32.4% increase, driven by a rise in insurgent and militant attacks in the south. Attacks on private property were up 19%, and was the most targeted sector in Asia in Q2. In contrast, attacks against military targets declined from a 40.9% share in Q1 to a 28.5% share in Q2. The threat from nihilistic violent extremism is increasing across Southeast Asia, particularly among younger radicalized actors. Threats from transnational Islamist extremist groups and localized insurgencies remain elevated, including a volatile environment in Afghanistan ahead of the fifth-year anniversary of Taliban’s return to power in August 2026.
Europe
Terrorism activity across Europe stayed low in Q2. The UK saw three incidents spanning distinct threat types: suspected New IRA militants detonated a car bomb outside Dunmurry police station, Belfast (no casualties); an Edinburgh stabbing injured five, reportedly all Muslim, now under counterterror investigation; and a Golders Green, London attack targeting the Jewish community left two injured before the assailant's arrest. Switzerland recorded one incident. The spread of attacks underlines the diversified threat drivers of European terrorism, and the low baseline threat profile.
Features
Israel-Lebanon: Conflict continues despite ceasefires
Seerist has verified 6,094 War events since Lebanon entered the conflict on 2 March up to the end of Q2. The Q2 security environment was shaped by negotiations to sustain a fragile ceasefire, first brokered on 16 April, extended over the following two months, culminating in a new ceasefire on 19 June and a trilateral US-Israel-Lebanon framework signed 26 June. Alongside these talks, the conflict shifted from high-intensity bombardment to sustained conflict punctuated by sporadic escalation, often tied to Israeli strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs, and finally to structural occupation, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declaring that Israel's military would maintain a security zone indefinitely to ensure Hizbullah's disarmament.
Before the ceasefire, Israel conducted 2,986 strikes on Lebanon between 2 March and 15 April (about 68 per day). From 16 April to 19 June, strikes totaled 3,028 (47 per day, a 31% decrease). Israeli attacks were concentrated in South and Nabatieh governorates, accounting for 94.5% of total hostilities, up from 89% in the previous period. Since the 19 June ceasefire, Israel has conducted 109 strikes (under 11 per day, a 76% drop).
The security environment remains volatile as Hizbullah was not party to the 26 June framework. Netanyahu insists that Israeli forces will remain until disarmament occurs, while Hizbullah demands full withdrawal, which the agreement conditions on disarmament. The deal has drawn public backlash, including violent protests by pro-Hizbullah residents in Beirut's suburbs on 26 June.
6,094
war events between 2 March and 30 June
2,986
strikes on Lebanon between 2 March and 15 April (about 68 per day)
3,028
strikes on Lebanon from 16 April to 19 June (47 per day, a 31% decrease)
109
strikes on Lebanon from 20 June to 30 June (under 11 per day, a 76% drop)
Looking ahead to Q3, continued IDF presence near Hizbullah fighters will sustain risks of low-level clashes, while Israel will likely continue periodic strikes on Hizbullah infrastructure regardless of diplomatic progress. During the prior ceasefire (27 November 2024 to 27 February 2026), Hizbullah conducted no attacks on Israeli territory while Israel conducted over 2,000 strikes (averaging just over four per day), with less than 10% of those outside southern regions. A similar cadence and geographic scope is likely going forward.
Bolivia: Unrest surges in Q2 amid fuel shortages
Bolivia experienced its most acute domestic crisis in years during Q2 2026, driven by fuel shortages, inflation, and deep political polarization. Seerist recorded a 180% surge in Unrest events compared to Q1 2026, with demonstrations unfolding in three distinct phases. By April, fuel shortages were highly likely to persist through year-end, given declining domestic production and constrained foreign currency reserves.
The first major flashpoint was 6 May, when protests formalized into a broad anti-government movement. Roadblocks spread rapidly across Bolivia's main corridors, with La Paz, El Alto, and Cochabamba departments emerging as disruption hotspots. Santa Cruz department and major border highway points toward Peru and Chile experienced also severe disruption, impacting industrial cargo and compounding food and medical supply shortages across the country.
Protest intensity peaked in May and early June 2026, driving a 172% rise in unrest events from April to May. On 18 May, clashes between protesters and security forces in Murillo Square, La Paz, left 14 injured. By 12 June, roadblocks restricted access to eight of nine departments, the Bolivian Ombudsman's Office declared a humanitarian crisis, and cumulative casualties reached 10 deaths and 37 injuries, with more than 100 arrests. Nationwide, up to 94 blockades were reported in the first two weeks of June, and blockades were registered in nearly 75% of all unrest events in Bolivia over Q2 2026.
180%
surge in unrest events compared with Q1
172%
rise in unrest events from April to May
94
blockades reported in the first two weeks of June
8 out of 9
departments affected by blockades
Disruption began to subside in mid-June, after the government secured an agreement with the Bolivian Workers' Central (COB), the main trade union federation, to suspend blockades nationwide. While the agreement significantly reduced the likelihood of a return to coordinated nationwide disruption by fracturing the opposition coalition, the structural drivers of the crisis remain unresolved. Fuel shortages are expected to sustain cyclical unrest through the end of 2026, with fragmented, localized, and sector-specific demonstrations.
Indonesia: Student-led protests
In Indonesia, verified unrest events increased 1.7 times in Q2 2026 compared with Q1, primarily driven by a surge in student-led protests in mid-June. Rising global oil prices amid the US–Iran conflict resulted in a 32% rise in non-subsidized fuel prices on 10 June, and the depreciation of rupiah against the US dollar to a record low in June. These factors triggered nationwide protests calling for lower fuel prices and stronger measures to stabilize the economy.
The mass demonstrations initially involved members of the public on 11 June before evolving into student-led protests targeting policies implemented by President Prabowo Subianto's administration. Protesters alleged corruption in government initiatives, including the Free Nutritious Meals (MBG) program. Most student-led protests were recorded on the island of Java, predominantly in Jakarta, Surabaya, Yogyakarta, and Semarang, with protest activity peaking between 15 and 18 June. While most demonstrations remained peaceful, a protest in Surabaya on 26 June turned violent after protesters threw firecrackers and vandalized the Grahadi State Building, resulting in 24 arrests.
Demonstrations in support of the Free Nutritious Meals (MBG) program emerged approximately one week after the onset of the student-led protests, organized mainly by volunteers and partners of the MBG program. Pro-MBG rallies were concentrated in Central Jakarta and drew hundreds to thousands of participants.
The student-led protests are highly unlikely to drive regime change or threaten political stability and are unlikely to evolve into a large-scale movement without support from labor unions and Islamic organizations. Although the government introduced an economic stimulus package on 22 June, nearly 70% of the measures comprise food assistance, offering only short-term relief without addressing underlying structural issues. Consequently, Indonesia is likely to face delayed reforms, weakening policy credibility, and recurring protests over the rising cost of living and unemployment if the government continues to contain household economic pressures rather than address employment and governance issues.
Notable verified events
28 analyst-verified events from across the world this quarter, by region. Numbers on each map correspond to the list.
Americas
Africa
APAC
Europe
MENA
What to watch in Q3 2026
July 2026
August 2026
September 2026
October 2026
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